A guest blogger, codename Dr. Insight, analyzes what many pols call the "purple states," those battlegrounds that both President Bush and John Kerry need to win in November.
In the 2004 election, most political analysts have tagged three classes of states: one group is "in the bag" for Sen. John F. Kerry, the second is "in the bag" for President George W. Bush, and the third is considered to be "battleground states," the group that will most likely decide the election. However, the "in the bag" judgment of some states is not supported by recent data. Of course, the election is five and a half months away, plenty of time for the candidates to regain their turf, but they should not grow arrogant regarding their superiority in these states.
President Bush's most significant challenge in an "in the bag" state can be found in North Carolina, thanks in large part to Sen. John Edwards.
In a recent Mason-Dixon poll, Bush led Kerry by seven points; however, when Edwards was added to the mix, Bush's lead shrank to a miniscule one point. Bush badly needs North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, and, if Kerry selects Edwards as his running mate, the president will have to fight hard to retain them.
Bush's "in the bag" difficulties, however, are blips when compared to Kerry's woes. In California, a state with 55 electoral votes and a must-win for Kerry (Al Gore won the state by nine points four years ago), Kerry leads Bush by one point according to a poll taken two weeks ago for four television stations in San Francisco, Sacramento, San Diego & Los Angeles by Survey Usa, an independent, well-respected polling group (as are all others cited here). Kerry's difficulties in California appear to arise from the popularity of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has formed bipartisan alliances on many issues which may be softening the hearts of some of California's Democrat majority in Bush's favor.
California is the easiest of Kerry's "in the bag" problems to explain. New Jersey at first seems simple (its proximity to the Twin Towers), but Kerry is pounding Bush by nearly 20 points in two New York polls conducted last month. However, a Quinnipiac poll conducted in New Jersey last week found Kerry leading Bush by three points in a state that Al Gore carried by 16 points in 2000. Kerry supporters point out that Bush was in this position at the same time in 2000, an accurate assessment; however, Bush and Kerry now, unlike Bush and Gore then, are much more well-known to New Jersey voters. Add to that an unpopular governor and Bush just might be able to snatch 15 ever-so-crucial electoral votes from Kerry in a place that no political pundits predicted was possible.
Maryland, another "in-the-bag" state for Kerry, seems to have forgotten its role in the election, as a Gonzales Research survey in March found Bush trailing Kerry by five points in a state that Al Gore won by 17 four years ago. Once again, 9/11 on its face seems like a reasonable explanation, but we then come back to those New York polls. Bush might be receiving aide in the form of the first Republican governor in Maryland, Bob Ehrlich, in over 30 years. Once again, it is important to remember that the election is five and a half months away, so many of these dynamics here could change in favor of either candidate.
Finally, we come to Illinois, the most difficult"in-the-bag" state to explain. 9/11 occurred nowhere near Illinois, but Bush trailed Kerry by 8 points in a March poll conducted by Mason-Dixon & just 5 in a poll conducted earlier this month by Rasmussen Reports and the Daily Southtown. Gore snatched Illinois' 21 electoral votes comfortably in 2000, and a loss for Kerry would be devastating.
Most states are decided, and the election will be decided most probably in the "battleground" states; however, the realistic possibility exists that the "in-the-bag" states of each candidate could bag his hopes for the presidency.
Posted by teri at June 17, 2004 04:02 PM